All foreign cars are a luxury

the first 11 months of this year, almost 2 million cars were sold in Russia, which is 31% more than last year.Fracture of the upward trend in sales was outlined in November: according to a study the European Business Association, last month the amount of foreign car sales fell 15 percent in the Russian market.The largest drop observed in the low-cost sector, represented by such brands like Chevrolet and Daewoo.Za 11 months of this year, almost 2 million cars were sold in Russia, which is 31% more than last year.Fracture of the upward trend in sales was outlined in November: according to a study the European Business Association, last month the amount of foreign car sales fell 15 percent in the Russian market.The largest drop observed in the low-cost sector, represented by such brands like Chevrolet and Daewoo.

main reasons for the fall in demand has been a sharp decline in income in all social groups, reduction of volumes and tighter credit conditions, as well as the overall growth of the population of

uncertainty in your financial future.The worst effects of falling sales of cars hit the lower price range - $ 10-20 thousand.It is their buyers frequently resorted to the services of car loans, the minimum initial payment or no.Tighter credit conditions almost completely shut down this group of consumers.Somewhat better is the situation in the medium price range ($ 20-50 thousand.), And the premium sector.However, and here the outlook is not very bright.

next year should not expect falling sales, he said on Radio Business FM marketing director of the group of companies "Autoworld" Vladimir Petrov: "I think that sales may be reduced by 15 percent, maximum 20".In total, experts predict a drop in sales of new cars in all sectors by 15-40 percent.

noteworthy that the fall in demand will not lead to lower prices for new cars of foreign manufacture.The only response to shrinking demand for leading car manufacturers is to reduce production (up to its full stop), which is already happening in many car factories in the world.A similar situation is observed in the factories of foreign companies operating in Russia.Therefore, hopes to buy cheapened sharply due to the crisis, "Ford" or "Volkswagen" assembled in Russia is hardly justified.Quite the contrary - the sales prices for new cars, some increase.Thus, manufacturers will try to reduce the costs associated with the reduction of the release.

Against this background, the expected sharp revival of the secondary market.It will not be at the expense of second-hand cars imported from abroad (with the adoption of new duties, their fate is almost solved), and, above all, through the reallocation of existing cars on the population hands, bought earlier on the territory of Russia.Reduced income and refusals of credit cars will form a sufficient supply of relatively new cars with low mileage and factory warranty.

extremely questionable is the assertion of some experts that a worsening of the crisis in the market there will be cheap cars seized by banks from insolvent lenders.The general trend in any case, will be given a priori expensive and very narrow market for new cars.Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that someone decides to spoil the "raspberry", flooding the market with cheap "relinquished" machines.Without a doubt, there are dozens, if not hundreds of companies have sufficient resources to take on the role of intermediaries, "leveling" price "abandoned" cars with the average market.It seems inevitable and the appearance of semi-formal alliances between such companies and banks, supplying "refusal" goods.

Nor should we underestimate the car owners themselves, "caught" car loans.It is unlikely that the majority of them accept the fact that their new cars will go to offset payments on the loan at clearly reduced prices.Already today there is a sufficient number of fully or with respect to legal ways of sale of pledged cars without much damage to their owners and the banks themselves.In that case, if the situation with the downs of car loans will be aggravated, the number of such methods and helpers in their implementation will increase many times.

Thus, today, with a high degree of confidence we can say that the Russian car market is waiting for major changes.The main feature will be a significant reduction of its volumes (15-40%) at the primary level with a slight increase compared with 2008 prices.In revive the secondary market is also not necessary to rely on the decline in prices, mainly because it is the market is quite new equipment purchased in Russian showrooms.Increased fees will be a serious obstacle for admission from abroad through private channels more old cars and cheap imports of RHD vehicles from Japan in the next 2-3 years, is likely to cease to exist as a separate kind of business.