process downturn affected the world's leading economies and Russia.Until recently, analysts said that, while the European countries are experiencing decline in GDP, while the US economy is steadily going down, our country, together with other members of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) feels relatively well.However, monitoring of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in January - October 2008, promulgated by the Minist
"In October 2008, becomes noticeable spread of the crisis on the real economy. Reduction of GDP excluding the seasonal factor was 0.4% in October. General Economic dynamics are most due to a decrease in growth of industrial production (mainly the manufacturing sector), investmentsin fixed assets and construction, while maintaining a high level of consumer demand ", - said the mayor.
In this regard, the agency lowered its forecast for economic growth in Russia in the current year from 7.3% to 6.8% - 7%.During the ten months of 2008, Russia's GDP grew by 7.5%, but this figure could be reduced to 4.7% in the IV quarter.
At the same time, inflation in Russia this year could exceed 13%, according to the mayor.According to Rosstat, by 17 November it has already exceeded the official forecast of the Russian government - 11.8%.Earlier, the central bank also raised its forecast for inflation in Russia in 2008 from 11% to 13%.
"After some amplification of consumer inflation in August - September, in October there was a fair price trends, growth amounted to 0.9% in November, according to preliminary data, inflation slowing trend continued.", - The document says the mayor.This is due to a decrease in the rate of income growth, which directly affects the growth of the trade turnover.
Russia has a chance to emerge from the crisis faster than Europe and the United States.This opinion was previously expressed PhD, scientific director of the Higher School of Economics, Yevgeny Yasin.According to the economist, Russia has a limited role in the global economy, and this is her happiness.The country turned away from the origins of the crisis, and he spoke Russian much less.Therefore, to cope with the recession will be easier said Yasin."Western countries expect long recession, Russia has the opportunity to get out of it in about a year" - he said.
However, Yevgeny Yasin opinion strongly disagrees director of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin.He believes that "the Russian crisis will be longer the world, because without urgent action in the spring of 2010, and even the fall of 2009, under his blows detonate our internal problems", and as a result, "the Russian economy has passed through several waves of production cuts."